Wave as Mamata Banerjee Faces Uphill Task
Kolkata, May 2, 2026 – With just two days left until the final West Bengal Election Results are declared on May 4, the political temperature in the state has reached a fever pitch. The majority of exit polls released after the two-phase voting have predicted a historic shift in power, suggesting an end to Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year reign over the state.
While the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) remains defiant, claiming the ground reality is different, most major psephology agencies have given a clear edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 294-member Legislative Assembly .
A Split Verdict in Exit Polls: Who is Leading?
The exit polls, released on the evenings of April 29 and April 30, have presented a sharply divided, albeit statistically favorable, picture for the saffron party.
The BJP Majority Scenario
Several prominent pollsters predict that the BJP will comfortably cross the magic figure of 148 seats for the first time in the state’s history.
Today’s Chanakya is projecting a landslide for the BJP, predicting 192 seats (+/- 11) for the NDA, leaving the TMC with only 100 seats (+/- 11) .
Praja Poll Analytics also forecasts a clear majority for the BJP, giving them a tally between 178 and 208 seats .
P-Marq predicts a solid victory for the BJP, estimating 150–175 seats against the TMC’s 118–138 .
· Matrize also gives the BJP a lead with 146–161 seats .
The TMC Comeback Scenario
However, not all data points to a regime change. Peoples Pulse has gone against the grain, predicting that the TMC will defy the anti-incumbency wave. They project the TMC to win 177–187 seats, securing Mamata Banerjee a fourth consecutive term . Janmat Polls is another outlier giving the TMC a sweeping majority of 195–205 seats .
Mamata Banerjee’s Counterattack: "These Polls are Fake"
In response to the bulk of predictions favoring the BJP, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee launched a blistering attack on the pollsters and the media. Dismissing the projections as "paid content," Banerjee claimed these numbers are being "circulated from the BJP office" to demoralize her cadre .
Addressing the public in a video message, Banerjee expressed full confidence in her voter base. "Do not believe these fake exit polls. The same thing happened in 2016 and 2021, and we saw the results on counting day," she asserted. The TMC supremo went on to claim that her party will surpass expectations, stating, "We will cross 226 in 2026" .
Furthermore, Banerjee raised serious concerns about the security of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), urging party workers to guard the strong rooms vigilantly and alleging that the BJP might attempt to manipulate the data during uploading on the computer server on May 4 .
The Ghost of 2021: Can Exit Polls Be Trusted?
For the casual observer, the 2026 exit polls look damning for the TMC. However, political analysts are urging caution. Historically, exit polls in West Bengal have failed spectacularly .
In the 2021 Assembly elections, most exit polls predicted a tight contest or a narrow BJP win. The India Today-Axis My India poll had predicted a close race with a slight edge to the BJP. However, when the results came, the TMC stormed back to power with a staggering 215 seats, while the BJP was reduced to a mere 77 .
This historical inaccuracy—where pollsters underestimated the TMC by an average of 61 seats—is a significant factor keeping the BJP from declaring victory prematurely and giving the TMC hope for a repeat performance .
What’s at Stake? Key Factors Driving the Verdict
If the BJP manages to win this election, it would be a monumental geopolitical shift, giving the party its first-ever majority in the state assembly. The party’s campaign focused heavily on corruption allegations against the TMC, law-and-order issues, and "infiltration"
Conversely, Mamata Banerjee’s campaign leaned heavily on "Bengali pride" (Sonar Bangla) and her extensive welfare network for women. Despite the anti-incumbency narrative, the state recorded a historic voter turnout of 92.47% , with women voters (93.24%) outnumbering men (91.74%) .
Poll of Polls
According to a comprehensive "Poll of Polls" conducted by various news networks, the average of all exit polls suggests a slight edge for the BJP, though not a clean sweep:
· BJP: 145 – 162 seats
· TMC: 124 – 140 seats
· Others: 2 – 6 seats
What Happens Next?
The suspense will only end on May 4, when the Election Commission of India will begin counting the votes for all 294 constituencies simultaneously. This year’s election was conducted under the shadow of heavy central forces deployment and allegations of voter intimidation from both sides .
For now, the two camps remain in their corners. The BJP is confident that the "anti-incumbency tsunami" will sweep them to power, while the TMC is banking on its loyal vote bank and the historically inaccurate track record of the pollsters to keep Didi in power.
Stay tuned for live updates and the final results on May 4.